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☆ All the data so far is showing inflation isn't going away, and is making things tough on the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-26 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Finally, consumers are dipping into savings to fund those purchases, creating a precarious scenario, if not now then down the road. With unemployment under 4%, it shouldn't be that surprising that prices aren't" going down, said Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities. So you might have a sticky inflation scenario." "If inflation remains higher, the Fed will be faced with the difficult choice of pushing the economy into a recession, abandoning its soft-landing scenario, or tolerating inflation higher than 2%," Sanders said. "To us, accepting higher inflation is the more prudent option."

Persons: Justin Sullivan, Joseph LaVorgna, LaVorgna, Donald Trump, Biden, Mike Sanders, Sanders Organizations: Getty, Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Nikko Securities, National Economic Council, Madison Investments Locations: San Rafael , California, U.S

Stocks rallied Friday after the latest jobs report came in piping hot. The Dow rose 307 points, or 0.8%, after climbing more than 400 points at the day's highs. Still, all three major indexes ended the week lower, starting the second quarter of the year on a sour note. While the latest jobs report supports the idea that the US economy is holding strong against interest rates at a 23-year high and could avoid a recession, it also puts into question when the Federal Reserve will begin its long-awaited rate cuts. The US economy added 303,000 jobs last month, according to data released Friday by the Labor Department.

Persons: Stocks, Mike Sanders Organizations: Dow, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Fed, Madison Investments

☆ U.S. Treasury yields have peaked, say strategists for fourth straight month
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( Sarupya Ganguly | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration Acquire Licensing RightsBENGALURU, Nov 14 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields will fall in coming months, though not as sharply as forecast previously, according to bond strategists polled by Reuters, who said for a fourth month running in even greater numbers that the 10-year note yield had peaked. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield breached the 5% mark last month for the first time since July 2007, more than a full percentage point above its August low of 3.96%. Yet, when asked whether the 10-year note yield had peaked in the current cycle, an overwhelming 94% majority of respondents, 30 of 32, said it had. The interest-rate sensitive 2-year Treasury note yield , currently at 5.04%, was expected to decline about 20 basis points by end-January, before falling to 4.00% in a year, according to the survey. If realized, this would mean a complete reversal of the inverted spread between yields of U.S. 2-year and 10-year Treasury notes - historically a reliable indicator of impending recession - by end-October 2024.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Thomas Simons, Mike Sanders, Sarupya Ganguly, Prerana Bhat, Purujit Arun, Anitta Sunil, Sujith Pai, Christina Fincher Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Treasury, Reuters, Federal Reserve, Hamas, Jefferies, Madison Investments, Thomson Locations: U.S, Israel

"It's pretty evident that the jobs market and the consumer are doing OK. Claims are still very, very low," he said. If claims are up to mid-250,000 by year's end, "that's a fairly obvious sign that there's a loosening of the labor market." "The question everyone's asking is: can yields continue to rise further and at what point are yields going to cause some serious damage on the economy?" The dollar index fell 0.234%, with the euro up 0.25% at $1.0529. All 11 sectors of the S&P index were in the red, with the big megacap growth stocks leading the decline.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Wall, Mike Sanders, Baylee Wakefield, Brent, Dennis Kissler, Elizabeth Howcroft, Elaine Hardcastle, Sharon Singleton, Richard Chang Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Madison Investments, Labor Department, Reuters, Aviva Investors, Treasury, Bank of Japan, Analysts, Bank of, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, BOK, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Madison , Wisconsin, Bank of Japan

☆ The Dow is on pace to do something today it hasn’t done since 1897
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

New York CNN —The Dow is on pace for its best run in 126 years. If the Dow closes higher Thursday for a 14th consecutive session, that would be its longest run of consecutive gains since May 1897. Should the Dow end the day higher today, and for a 15th straight day on Friday, that would mark the index’s longest daily winning streak ever. The blue-chip index’s run is already at historic levels: The Dow on Wednesday notched its 13th straight day of gains, its best winning streak since 1987 and its highest level since February 2022. Some investors say that the central bank is unlikely to pivot as soon as Wall Street expects, or as quickly.

Persons: Dow, —, haven’t, “, ”, Rhys Williams, Mike Sanders Organizations: New, New York CNN, Dow, Wednesday, New York Stock, Bettmann, Nasdaq, Meta, Big Tech, Federal Reserve, Management, Traders, Madison Investments Locations: New York

With its latest 25 basis point interest rate increase now in the books, the Fed has raised the benchmark overnight interest rate by 525 basis points since March 2022 to a level last seen before the 2007 housing market crash in a fight to bring down inflation. Still, some fixed income investors have remained on edge over how long the Fed can keep interest rates at restrictive levels without sparking an economic downturn. Meanwhile, Fed funds futures traders saw increased probability of another interest rate increase in September. To be sure, investors had badly overestimated the chances for recession at the beginning of this year and could be wrong again. Over the past year the unemployment rate has remained stubbornly low and growth has run consistently above trend.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Gurpreet Gill, Goldman Sachs, Powell, Kristy Akullian, It's, Adam Hetts, Janus Henderson, Mike Sanders, Blair Shwedo, Davide Barbuscia, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili Organizations: YORK, Federal Reserve, Fed, Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Barclays, BlackRock, Investment, Treasury, Janus, Janus Henderson Investors, Madison Investments, U.S . Bank, Thomson

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